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February 5, 2026IMF Working PaperOpen Access

Lost Generations? Fertility and Economic Growth in Europe

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Authors

SCSerhan Cevik

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Implication

This analysis explores the impact of fertility on income growth in Europe, indicating significant economic implications.

Key Points

  • The aim is to estimate the impact of below-replacement fertility on income growth and identify mitigating factors.
  • Analyzed total fertility rate and income growth across 42 European countries from 1960 to 2022.
  • Implemented an instrumental variable approach to address endogeneity bias.
  • Used exogenous variation in the comparative abortion index as an instrument for total fertility rate.
  • Fertility positively impacts real GDP per capita growth.
  • Falling fertility rates drag down income per capita growth in Europe.
  • The findings indicate significant social and economic consequences of declining fertility rates.

Cite This Study

Serhan Cevik (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69843451f1d9ada3c1fb2519https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229004732.001
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Also Consider

Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context:

  1. 1A regional study of the relationship between economic conditions, education and parity-specific fertility in Europe2024
  2. 2The Economics of Human Shrinkage2026
  3. 3Fertility and long‐term economic growth2024 · 6 citations
  4. 4Cross‐country differences in the long‐run economic impacts of increased fertility2025
  5. 5The Educational Gradient of Period Fertility in Europe. A Demographic Analysis Using EU-SILC Data.2026