Long-term data analysis finds significant correlations with subseasonal rainfall, suggesting improved forecasting methods.
Long-term (1962-1995) data of a number of global/regional circulation parameters have shown statistically significant correlations (at the five per cent level) with the subseasonal Indian monsoon rainfall. Utilising some of these circulation par-ameters, we have developed a few regression models to forecast the subseasonal monsoon rainfall. The performances of these models, assessed by cross-validation, are seen to be fairly good as the root mean square errors (RSME) of the forecasts for the entire period of study are significantly smaller than the standard deviations of corresponding rainfall series. The correlations between the actual and forecast series are also significant.
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SINGH et al. (1996) studied this question.
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