This paper describes a numerical weather prediction model developed at the Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC) for the purposes of both research and real-time analysis and prediction over the Australian tropics. The model is described in some detail and its capabilities are illustrated by examining its performance in predicting the motion of two tropical cyclones, and the onset and active/break periods of the Australian summer monsoon during the Australian Monsoon Experiment (AMEX). Overall the model shows skill on both the prediction of tropical cyclone tracks and for features of the tropical circulation, such as a trend to weakening and subsequent strengthening of low-level monsoon westerly winds. However the model, in common with most others, is unable to predict the initial onset of the monsoon beyond 24 hours.
Puri et al. (Mon,) studied this question.
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