The numerical forecasts of tropical cyclones, which occurred during the AMEX (Australian Monsoon Experiment), have been studied. The UB/NMC (University of Belgrade/National Meteorological Center, Washington) limited area model, with vertical coordinate which permits a step-like representation of mountains and quasi-horizontal coordinate surfaces (so-called eta coordinate), was used. The physical package includes Mellor-Yamada level 2.5 turbulent exchange with level 2 used in the lowermost layer, large-scale precipitation and evaporation, Betts-Miller convective parametrisation, surface processes after Miyakoda and Sirutis, and the NMC version of the GLA (Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres) radiation scheme. The model was run with 0.5° × 0.5° horizontal resolution and 16 layers in the vertical. The realistic 48-hour forecasts of AMEX tropical cyclones (Connie, Irma, Damien and Jason) based on ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) operational analyses, that is real-time data (without additional AMEX data available in delayed mode) for initial and forecasts for boundary data, demonstrate the model's ability to predict tropical cyclones.
Lazar Lazić (Sat,) studied this question.