Some recent results on numerical weather prediction over the tropics

A review of some recent results on numerical weather prediction over the tropics is presented here. The emphasis of this review is on the prediction of hurricane formation and motion from global models. Also presented is a brief summary of results from regional single and multilevel models. The major new results on the global models are that with increasing resolution in the horizontal and in the vertical (especially in the boundary layer) major improvements have been possible. The model is quite sensitive to data sets, the performance being considerably better with the final FGGE data sets as against the operational data sets. Improvements in short to medium range prediction are contributed by refinements in the parametrisation of physical processes. High resolution global models show major improvement in storm tracks; the hurricane formation is very well handled with these modelling refinements although the inner storm area (radius less than 150 km) is not resolved by the high resolution global models. Thus the maximum speeds and minimum pressure of storms are not well handled in the present state of the art.