An evaluation of thunderstorm forecasting methods and attempts to extend Cox's method

Cox’s method of thunderstorm forecasting and the use of Showalter and Lifted Indices as alerting aids were tested for most of the following stations: Darwin, Eagle Far m, Guildford, Port Hedland, Adelaide Airport, Mascot (using Williamtown soundings), Laverton and Townsville. Tests were also made of parameters used in the slice method (Beers 1945) assessment of atmospheric stability. The Cox method was investigated fully at Darwin and Eagle Far m where it was used in combination with an estimate of the thermal advection in the lower half of the troposphere. Another method was developed for Darwin in which an estimate of the conditional instability was made. Skill scores based on persistence were used to evaluate the success of the methods.