Projection of forest carbon sequestration potential in Russia based on the GM(1,1) model

Forest carbon sinks in Russia constitute a fundamental component of the national "Low-Carbon Development Strategy" (LCDS), which, under the target scenario, aims to increase their net absorption capacity to 1200 million tons CO 2 -eq./year by 2050. However, some researchers have regarded this figure as significantly overestimated, suggesting 980 million tons CO 2 -eq./year as a more realistic upper limit. To evaluate the validity of this assumption, the GM(1,1) model was employed to forecast Russia's forest carbon sequestration potential through 2050. The model demonstrates high predictive accuracy despite data constraints. The prediction results indicate that by 2050, Russia's total forest carbon stock is projected to reach approximately 141.89 billion tons. Nevertheless, the annual forest carbon sink volume in Russia is projected to reach only 983.44 million tons CO 2 , aligning with the assumption that the official estimate may be overstated (by 18.05%). Therefore, Russia's LCDS regarding forest carbon sequestration potential should be reconsidered and revised accordingly.