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February 8, 2026PLoS ONE0 citationsOpen Access

Estimating District-Level Fertility in Botswana Using Census Data

Estimation of district-level fertility using age-structured census data and assessment of spatial–socioeconomic differentials in Botswana, 2022

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Authors

TMTiro Theodore MonamoKNKannan Navaneetham

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Overview

Analysis reveals spatial and socioeconomic fertility differences in Botswana, emphasizing targeted policy needs.

Key Points

  • The study aims to estimate district-level fertility rates in Botswana and examine the factors influencing spatial differences.
  • Analyzed 2022 Botswana Population and Housing Census data for women aged 15-49.
  • Calculated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) and total fertility rates (TFRs).
  • Compared direct estimates with established indirect and model-based fertility estimation techniques for validation.
  • Evaluated data quality using parity distributions and reports of recent births in the census.
  • Direct and model-based fertility estimates were closely aligned, with national TFR values between 2.6 and 3.0 children per woman.
  • Urban districts showed below-replacement fertility linked to higher female education and delayed childbirth.
  • Rural districts maintained higher fertility levels (around 3.5–4.5) due to higher child mortality and traditional reproductive norms.
  • Key demographic mechanisms such as age structure and child survival influenced spatial fertility inequalities.

Cite This Study

Monamo et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/698828330fc35cd7a8847830https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0342090
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