Prospects for AUKUS Expansion under the Second Trump Administration

The article is devoted to the analysis of the prospects for the expansion of AUKUS through the inclusion of new members, as well as the alliance’s overall activity following the return of Donald Trump’s administration to power. The authors examine recent trends and outcomes of cooperation within AUKUS framework and conclude that the alliance’s agenda generally aligns with U.S. interests under D. Trump, despite such challenges as the slow pace of nuclear submarine construction and what the Trump administration sees as insufficient Australian defense spending. At the same time, AUKUS members and potential candidates for joining the alliance hold different views on its expansion and activities: positive (Canada), neutral (South Korea, Japan), mostly critical (New Zealand), and ambivalent (Australia). The article pays special attention to how AUKUS is perceived by the Pacific Island States, which are concerned about the alliance’s nuclear component, environmental risks, and the lack of regional consultation. The authors conclude that, despite current U.S. support, the long-term sustainability of AUKUS will depend on the ability of its members to share responsibilities and find mutually beneficial solutions for implementing future projects under the Pillar 2 agenda.