Systematic evaluation highlights predictors of success in blockchain systems, suggesting new methodologies.
This working paper introduces the Blockchain First-Principles Analysis (BFPA) framework, a novel methodology for evaluating distributed ledger systems by constructing explicit derivation chains from physical laws and cryptographic assumptions through a praxeological action axiom to concrete protocol design decisions. The framework features a four-level axiom hierarchy (physics, cryptography, praxeology, social consensus), a Nash equilibrium gate for social layer stability, a four-stage stability profile, a lock-in typology distinguishing design-emergent, ecosystem-emergent, corporate-imposed, and regulatory-granted lock-in, and a network effect genesis model identifying five necessary conditions for spontaneous adoption. Systematic application to eight major blockchain systems (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Monero, XRP, Polkadot, Tezos, BNB Chain) reveals that epistemic design quality correlates weakly with market outcomes, while lock-in type and network effect genesis conditions are substantially stronger predictors. The analysis provides principled explanations for the Tezos Paradox and the Monero Paradox. Comments welcome.
No takes yet. Share an insight, caveat, or question.
Frederik Salzmann (2026) studied this question.
Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context: