Possible impact of national responses to the COVID pandemic on medal tallies at the Paris 2024 Olympics

Previous study analyzing the 2021 Tokyo Olympics found that countries with high levels of government stringency measures were disadvantaged in the medal counts. This study aimed to analyze the effects of both containment measures and COVID outcomes on the medal counts at the 2024 Paris Olympics. The top 18 nations from the 2012, 2016 and 2021 Olympics had their relative Gold medals, total medals and medal points (Gold = 3, Silver = 2 and Bronze = 1) for Paris 2024 analyzed using a stepwise linear regression model (P < 0.05 to enter, P > 0.10 to remove). Initial input factors included previous medal tallies, home city advantage, time zone effects, national excess deaths 2020–2023, average GDP growth 2020–2023, Oxford Stringency Index (OSI) at the end of 2022 and number of country signatories to the Great Barrington Declaration (GBD). Total medals and medal points were best predicted by previous total medals and home-city advantage. Gold medals were best predicted by previous Gold medals (t = 9.1, P < 0.001), low national excess mortality (t = −3.7, P = 0.002) and high OSI (t = 3.4, P = 0.004). This analysis found that the countries that had suffered low excess mortality and had high stringency during the pandemic years tended to win more Gold medals at Paris 2024, a finding in the opposite direction to a previous analysis of Tokyo 2021. It is plausible that lockdowns, border closures and other stringency measures may have put athletes at disadvantage when training for the 2021 Olympics but that they may have conferred a later advantage for the Paris Olympics, perhaps due to less cumulative exposure to the COVID virus itself.