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February 12, 2026Land Degradation and DevelopmentOpen Access

Discerning Uncertainties in the Implications of Future Land Use Change on Ecosystem Service Values Under Climate Change and Development Patterns: Different Scenarios and Cross‐Scale Perspectives

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Authors

LSLina SunXi'an Polytechnic UniversityPZPing ZhangChinese Academy of SciencesYQYuting QiXi'an Polytechnic University

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Implication

This analysis examines land use change effects on ecosystem services in different scenarios, suggesting integrated planning for sustainability.

Key Points

  • The aim is to predict future land use dynamics and their impact on ecosystem service values under climate change.
  • Developed an integrated assessment framework combining system dynamics, mixed-cell cellular automata, and map comparison statistics.
  • Simulated land use and ecosystem service value evolution across climate and socioeconomic scenarios.
  • Evaluated uncertainty of ecosystem service value across various scenarios and spatial scales.
  • Land use change generally reduced ecosystem service value from 2020 to 2080.
  • The intensity of the negative impact followed the order: SSP126 > SSP245 > SSP585.
  • Uncertainty peaked at smaller spatial scales, surpassing interannual variability.

Cite This Study

Sun et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/698d6e2a5be6419ac0d53a71https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.70490
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