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February 12, 2026Applied Sciences0 citationsOpen Access

Deep Learning-Based Short-Term Stream-Stage and Urban Inundation Prediction in a Highly Urbanized Basin: A Case Study of Bisan-dong, Anyang, South Korea

YJYoungkyu JinKorea Rural Economic InstituteTJTaekmun JeongKorea Fisheries Resources AgencyYGYonghyeon GwonKorea Fisheries Resources Agency

Key Points

  • The study aims to enhance real-time forecasting of urban flooding and stream stages in a developed basin.
  • Developed a gated recurrent unit (GRU) model trained on rainfall and stream-stage data from 2011 to 2018.
  • Validated the GRU model using data from four gauges for lead times of 10–60 minutes.
  • Created an ANN–CNN model using 864 simulation scenarios to generate inundation maps based on storm data.
  • Evaluated performance using metrics such as R2, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).
  • GRU model achieved R2 and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values above 0.95 for 10–30 minute predictions.
  • Mean absolute percentage error for the GRU model was below approximately 5% for short lead times.
  • The ANN–CNN inundation surrogate reproduced results with an MAPE of 8.89% for inundation area and 19.49% for maximum depth.

Abstract

Urban pluvial flooding in highly developed basins is challenging to forecast in real time because detailed 1D–2D hydraulic models are computationally expensive, while purely data-driven approaches often lack physical consistency. This study aims to enable operational urban flood nowcasting by proposing a model-informed AI framework for short-term stream-stage and urban inundation prediction in the Bisan-dong district of Anyang, South Korea, where the Anyang and Hagui Streams frequently overflow. A gated recurrent unit (GRU) network was trained on 10 min rainfall and stream-stage observations from 2011 to 2018 and independently validated on 2019–2022 data at four gauges to forecast stream stage at lead times of 10–60 min. In parallel, an ANN–CNN inundation surrogate was trained on 864 XP-SWMM 1D–2D simulation scenarios, forced by design storms and downstream water-level boundary conditions, to produce 256 × 256 maps of maximum inundation depth. The GRU model achieved R2 and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency values generally above 0.95, with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) below approximately 5% for 10–30-min lead times; performance decreased but remained useful at 60 min. The inundation surrogate reproduced XP-SWMM results with an MAPE of 8.89% for inundation area and 19.49% for grid-based depth. Together, the ANN–CNN system enables rapid generation of high-resolution flood maps and provides a practical basis for AI-assisted urban flood nowcasting and risk management.

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Cite This Study

Jin et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/698d6f0d5be6419ac0d5520dhttps://doi.org/10.3390/app16041792
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