This working paper introduces the Equilibrium Ledger, a diagnostic and predictive framework for analysing institutional entropy and structural failure. The paper argues that institutional breakdown is often preceded by measurable early warning signals, including temporal overload, procedural proliferation, linguistic abstraction, responsibility displacement, and the transfer of interpretive labour onto individuals. It proposes an operational definition of prediction as probabilistic risk detection within a defined institutional horizon, and introduces a preliminary scoring rubric, the Equilibrium Ledger Risk Score, with risk bands and an illustrative application. The paper integrates a language based analysis of governance failure, treating institutional language as infrastructure that can either enable participation or enforce exclusion. It frames neurodivergent cognition as a high resolution diagnostic lens for identifying systemic drift, and sets out a reform pathway aimed at reducing cognitive extraction, improving accountability, and restoring institutional intelligibility. The Equilibrium Ledger is presented as both a research programme and an applied instrument suitable for comparative analysis across public administration, healthcare, education, and organisational governance. The paper also specifies limitations and proposes validation steps, including longitudinal testing and inter rater reliability evaluation.
Alessandro Grassini Grimaldi (Sat,) studied this question.