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February 16, 2026Global Change BiologyOpen Access

Modeling Ringed and Bearded Seal Future Habitats Indicates Stability, Shifts, and Refugia

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Authors

PFPatrick FarnoleSFSteven H. FergusonAHA. C. HADDON

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Overview

Modeling predicts habitat stability and shifts for seals in Arctic regions, indicating conservation needs.

Key Points

  • The study aims to model potential future habitats for ringed and bearded seals in response to climate change.
  • Developed a panarctic habitat suitability model
  • Simulated habitat conditions using Earth System Models from 1850 to 2100
  • Compared past habitat stability with present and future projections
  • Identified a stable historical habitat contrasted with rapid regional shifts in current projections
  • Projected decline in core historical seal habitats
  • Highlighted East Siberian Sea and Canadian Arctic Archipelago as potential refugia

Cite This Study

Farnole et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6992b3939b75e639e9b08470https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70735
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