Mechanisms Underlying the Effects of Recreation Services on Tourist Satisfaction in Forest Parks: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta, China

Recreation service evaluation systems are critical to forest park management; however, existing frameworks often emphasize static infrastructure while overlooking tourists’ dynamic perceptions and sentiments. This study develops a comprehensive recreation service evaluation framework by integrating objective geospatial indicators with social media-based tourist feedback. A total of 67 forest parks in the Yangtze River Delta were selected as the study area. Descriptive statistics and spatial autocorrelation analyses, including Global and Local Moran’s I, were applied to the statistical properties and spatial patterns of recreation service indicators, tourist comments, and sentiment. In addition, an Extreme Gradient Boosting model with SHAP interpretation was employed to identify key recreation service indicators and explore their non-linear effects on tourist participation and sentiment. The results reveal significant positive spatial clustering of tourist comments and sentiment. Service-related and safety indicators play a dominant role in shaping tourist participation and sentiment patterns, whereas ecological indicators show weaker direct effects. Several indicators exhibit clear non-linear and threshold effects. Overall, recreation service experiences in forest parks are primarily driven by accessibility, service facilities, and safety assurance, and the proposed framework enhances dynamic interpretability and supports the optimization of recreation services.