Extreme Wind Power Output Scenario Generation Method Guided and Constrained by Statistical Features

The increasing penetration of renewable energy and the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events have significantly heightened the uncertainty in power system operations. Simultaneously, the scarcity of renewable energy output samples under extreme meteorological conditions constrains the accurate assessment of extreme risks in system planning and dispatch. To bridge this gap, this work aims to propose a method for generating extreme wind power output scenarios that possess both diversity and statistical accuracy under limited sample conditions. To address this, this paper proposes a method for generating scenarios of extreme wind power output guided and constrained by statistical features. First, multidimensional statistical features are extracted from historical wind power output scenarios and combined, and a quantile threshold method is applied to screen out extreme wind power output scenarios. Subsequently, based on differentiated application requirements of the power system, extreme scenarios undergo preliminary classification followed by category-specific clustering analysis, achieving refined classification of the scenario set. Building on this, an improved generative adversarial network model is constructed, and the Wasserstein distance and gradient penalty mechanism are introduced to enhance training stability. Additionally, a statistical feature self-attention mechanism and feature loss function are designed to effectively constrain the consistency between generated scenarios and real scenarios in key statistical features. Results demonstrate that the proposed method can generate a set of extreme wind power output scenarios with both diversity and statistical accuracy under limited sample conditions, providing effective data support for system safety operation and risk prevention and control.