Comprehensive analysis of air pollution surface-to-columnar changes after three years of the Russian–Ukrainian war

This paper analyzes the complex air quality changes observed after three years of the devastating Russian–Ukrainian war. Using remote sensing and near-surface observations for 2019–2024, we provide the first multi-temporal assessment of air pollutant changes, ranging from single events to interannual variability, against the background of the war’s cumulative regional effects. The analysis reveals contrasting short- and long-term impacts. Short-term episodes in urban areas linked to missile and drone attacks increased near-surface pollutant concentrations by 100–400%, with extreme cases exceeding 1000%, while average three-year changes reflected redistribution and shift of emission sources. These shifts produced heterogeneous outcomes: total suspended particles (TSP) mainly decreased in major cities but increased by 14% near the frontline; SO 2 rose in regions reliant on dirtier fuels; NO 2 generally declined by 10–30% with greater variability; and CO mostly decreased except near specific industrial sources. Satellite data confirmed a war-related regional pollution decrease up to 30% for NO 2 in major cities and near the frontline, 10% CO drop because of destructions in Mariupol and SO 2 decrease over the Donetsk region. A decrease in CH 2 O of up to 12% observed in the northern Ukraine probably related to changes in the prevailing meteorological conditions. These findings highlight the war’s dual role in suppressing regular emissions while amplifying localized pollution.