Adaptation Strategies for Managing Crop, Water, and Nitrogen Under Simulated Climate Change in Rice–Wheat System

Managing crop, water, and nitrogen resources under climate change and effects on productivity and resource‐use efficiency is vital for food security in the rice–wheat dominated Indo‐Gangetic Plains, where quantitative assessments under simulated climate remain limited. This study evaluated climate impacts on rice and wheat using CERES‐Rice and CERES‐Wheat models in Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) under representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for mid‐century (2031–2060) and end‐century (2061–2090) relative to baseline (1990–2020). Rice yield increases under both RCPs, while wheat increases under RCP 4.5 but declines under RCP 8.5. Water use efficiency decreases, whereas nitrogen recovery efficiency improves. Recommended adaptations for rice include variety PR126, 2‐day drainage, and 90 kg N ha −1 in RCP 4.5 (MC); PR126, 3‐day drainage, and 150 kg N ha −1 in RCP 4.5 (EC). For RCP 8.5, PR122 with 3‐day drainage and 150 kg N ha −1 is suggested for MC; PR122 with 3‐day drainage and 120 kg N ha −1 for EC. For wheat, variety Unnat PBW343 with IW/CPE 1.0 and 150 kg N ha −1 is advised for RCP 4.5 (MC); IW/CPE 1.2 for EC. Under RCP 8.5, PBW550 with IW/CPE 0.8 and 120 kg N ha −1 is suitable for MC; IW/CPE 1.2 and 150 kg N ha −1 for EC.