Irrigation-driven intensification of wheat production in China: balancing sustainability and global food security in a changing climate

• China achieved a 143% increase in wheat production despite a 25% reduction of cultivated land. • Wheat cultivation has migrated to high-yield regions, reaching 71% in the North China Plain through irrigation-driven intensification. • Irrigation-intensive yield growth faces sustainability constraints from increasing water scarcity. • Integrated strategies (S3) could satisfy 2050s national wheat demand while reducing environmental impact. • S3-generated surpluses could meet Africa’s wheat import needs, advancing SDG 2. Ensuring sustainable food systems amidst water scarcity and climate change is crucial for achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). As the world’s top wheat producer, China’s wheat output increased by 143% from 1980 to 2020, despite a 25% reduction in cultivated area, highlighting the tension between food security and environmental sustainability. This study examines how the intensification of irrigation has reshaped the geography of wheat production in China and develops sustainable strategies to balance future productivity with water resource conservation under climate change scenarios. We apply a Random Forest (RF) modeling framework combined with municipality-level data to identify key drivers of wheat cultivation patterns in China from 1980 to 2020. Using this calibrated model, we further project sustainable intensification pathways through the 2050s. Our findings reveal that changes in wheat area have been largely driven by irrigation-based intensification, particularly in the North China Plain. This shift is clearly demonstrated by the region’s share of national wheat cultivation grew from 53% in the 1980s to 71% in the 2010s. However, this intensification has raised significant concerns about groundwater depletion and environmental degradation. To mitigate these challenges, we propose integrated strategies, including irrigation-driven migration and sustainable intensification practices, to meet national wheat demand while minimizing environmental impacts under future climate change scenarios for the 2050s. By that time, surplus wheat production in China could contribute significantly to alleviating global hunger, including meeting African growing wheat import demands, making a significant contribution to SDG 2-Zero Hunger. Our study provides actionable insights for stakeholders across sectors, emphasizing the need to integrate sustainability into agricultural practices to achieve co-benefits across the climate-food-water nexus and advance the global sustainable development agenda.