Export structure as a determinant of maritime trade risk: The mitigating role of shipping connectivity

• Shipping connectivity mitigates volatility from export concentration. • IV-GMM addresses endogeneity between trade performance and connectivity. • High connectivity neutralizes the volatility risk from export concentration. • Maritime connectivity is a strategic measure for national economic resilience. Nations with concentrated export bases face heightened maritime trade volatility, fueling macroeconomic instability. While the effect of infrastructure on trade volume is well-documented, its role in moderating trade risk remains underexplored, particularly in relation to export concentration and maritime connectivity. This study applies an Instrumental Variables Generalized Method of Moments (IV-GMM) estimator on a global panel of 129 countries (2007–2023) to address endogeneity and dynamic panel issues that limit fixed-effects models. The results provide the robust, global-scale evidence of this moderating effect, showing that greater export product concentration significantly raises maritime trade volatility (coefficient = 0.2545, p < 0.0001). Crucially, the Liner Shipping Connectivity Index reduces this effect, with a negative and highly significant interaction term (coefficient = -0.0016, p < 0.0001). At higher connectivity levels, the impact of concentration diminishes and may disappear altogether. These findings highlight maritime connectivity as a buffer against external shocks, positioning port infrastructure as a strategic tool for strengthening resilience in export-dependent economies.