Does Rural Labor Aging Hinder Green Agricultural Transformation: Evidence from China with a Digitalization Perspective

The rapid aging of China’s rural labor force is reshaping agricultural production and may complicate the transition toward greener development. Yet whether—and through what channels—labor aging hampers green agricultural transformation (GAT) remains insufficiently understood. Drawing on provincial panel data from 2012 to 2023, this study employs fixed-effects models to empirically investigate the relationship between rural labor aging and GAT, while also examining the moderating role of digitalization. The empirical findings reveal a robust negative association between rural labor aging and GAT, and this finding remains robust to alternative specifications as well as endogeneity treatments. Mechanism tests indicate that aging may constrain GAT by weakening regional innovation capacity, slowing fertilizer reduction, and limiting the expansion of scale operations. Moreover, digital village construction significantly mitigates the detrimental impact of aging on GAT. This buffering role is heterogeneous, with stronger mitigation observed in provinces characterized by more severe aging and higher levels of economic development. Overall, the evidence highlights the potential of digital tools and rural digital infrastructure to sustain GAT in an aging society.