What question did this study set out to answer?

Examine the probability of drawing a starting hand with a specific two-card combo in Magic: The Gathering.

February 23, 2026Open Access

Probability of Opening-Hand Combo: Great Furnace and Goblin Tomb Raider — A Pauper Format Case Study in Magic: The Gathering

Key Points

Examine the probability of drawing a starting hand with a specific two-card combo in Magic: The Gathering.
Theoretical derivation using hypergeometric distributions
Monte Carlo simulation for statistical verification
Quantified the probability of having both Great Furnace and Goblin Tomb Raider in a starting hand
Demonstrated the effectiveness of simulation for validating theoretical predictions

Abstract

We study the probability of drawing a starting hand containing at least one copy of each component of a two-card “combo” in Magic: The Gathering: Great Furnace (GF) and Goblin Tomb Raider (GTR). Our analysis combines a theoretical derivation using hypergeometric distributions with a Monte Carlo simulation for statistical verification.

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Cite This Study

Hypergeomancer (Sat,) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/699ba05e72792ae9fd86fc46 https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18721570

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