No evidence for critical slowing down before measles outbreaks in the US, 2006–2025

Key Points

• The study aims to assess the effectiveness of statistical early warning systems in predicting measles outbreaks in the US from 2006 to 2025.
• Analyzed historical data on measles outbreaks in the US
• Applied statistical early warning systems to the data
• Evaluated outbreak prediction accuracy based on these systems
• No evidence found that critical slowing down occurs before outbreaks
• Statistical methods did not reliably predict outbreak timing or magnitude
• Highlighting the need for alternative prediction methods in vaccine-preventable diseases