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February 24, 2026AUIQ Humanities and Social Sciences1 citations

The Role of Artificial Intelligence in Macroeconomic Forecasting: A Systematic Literature Review

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TMThura J. MohammedXCXinYing ChewKKKhai Wah Khaw

Key Points

  • The aim is to systematically review the application and effectiveness of artificial intelligence in macroeconomic forecasting.
  • Conducted a systematic review using PRISMA guidelines.
  • Searched databases including Web of Science, Scopus, and ScienceDirect.
  • Collected 1,627 records, narrowing down to 178 studies through screening and de-duplication.
  • AI methods frequently improve forecasting accuracy during crises and in data-rich environments.
  • Tree-based ensembles and deep sequence models show significant promise in short-horizon forecasting.
  • The performance of AI models varies across different macroeconomic variables and forecasting horizons.

Abstract

Macroeconomic forecasting remains difficult because aggregate dynamics are nonlinear, regime-dependent, and increasingly informed by high-dimensional, mixed-frequency data, conditions under which traditional econometric models often lose accuracy, especially around turning points. This study systematically reviews how artificial intelligence (AI) is being used to address these challenges and what reliable evidence exists on its forecasting value. Using a PRISMA-aligned protocol, we searched Web of Science, Scopus, and ScienceDirect, identifying 1,627 records; after de-duplication and multi-stage screening, 178 studies were retained for qualitative synthesis. The review develops an evidence-based taxonomy of AI model families in macroeconomic forecasting and synthesizes their motivations, performance patterns, and limitations across targets such as gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation, and labor-market indicators. This study shows that AI methods, particularly tree-based ensembles, deep sequence models, and hybrid econometric–AI systems, frequently improve short-horizon forecasting and nowcasting in data-rich settings and during crisis regimes, but do not dominate uniformly across variables or horizons. The study's contributions are threefold: a structured taxonomy that organizes a fragmented field, a consolidated assessment of where AI gains are robust versus conditional, and a clear articulation of the main methodological and policy-relevant constraints shaping future macro-AI forecasting research.

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Cite This Study

Mohammed et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/699d3fe6de8e28729cf64cdbhttps://doi.org/10.70176/3106-7557.1008
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