Integrated Emission Inventory and Socioeconomic Drivers of Air Pollutants and Greenhouse Gases from Municipal Solid Waste Incineration in China

To comprehensively assess the emissions of flue gas pollutants from municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) in China and their socioeconomic driving factors, this study employs a bottom-up approach to develop an integrated carbon and air pollutant emission inventory for 1016 MSWI plants in 2024. We apply a Random Forest (RF) model to analyze the underlying drivers. Results indicate that for air pollutants, NOx has the highest emissions, whereas mercury (Hg) and dioxins (polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans, PCDD/Fs) are identified as priority control pollutants due to their high toxicity. Spatially, emissions display a distinct “high in the east, low in the west” pattern, concentrated in eastern coastal provinces, with characteristic pollutants being prominent in specific regions. Meanwhile, among greenhouse gases (GHGs), CO2 dominates mass emissions, while N2O exhibits significant global warming potential. Driver analysis reveals that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and MSWI treatment capacity are key common drivers, showing stable positive and negative contributions, respectively. The number of invention patent applications is specifically and strongly associated with NOx and heavy metal emissions. This study provides a national-scale integrated quantification of MSWI emissions and a quantitative analysis of their driving mechanisms using RF, offering a critical data foundation and scientific basis for supporting synergistic pollution and carbon reduction.