Forecasting Yield Improvement in Tanzania's Secondary Schools Systems Using Time-Series Models: A Methodological Assessment

The secondary education systems in Tanzania face challenges in maintaining and improving student yields. A comparative analysis of ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) model performance to forecast yield changes over a five-year period. The ARIMA(2,1,0) model showed an average monthly yield improvement rate of 3.5% with a confidence interval of ±2% ARIMA models provide robust forecasting for yield improvements in secondary schools systems in Tanzania. Further research should explore the impact of socio-economic factors on school performance and test alternative model configurations. The empirical specification follows Y=β₀+β^ X+ε, and inference is reported with uncertainty-aware statistical criteria.