Exploring river flow and land use transformation effects on wetland dominated Indo-Bangladesh Riparian Corridors of Barind Tract

The present study examines the dynamics of hydrological change and LULC transformation and its impacts on carbon sequestration in the wetland-dominated three riparian corridors (Tangon, Punarbhaba, and Atreyee river basins) of the Indo-Bangladesh Barind Tract. Using multi-temporal Landsatimages (2010, 2024) and a CA–Markov predictive model for 2038, the study quantifies spatial changes amongstvegetation, water bodies, agricultural land, and built-up areas of the basins. InVEST model was applied for calculating carbon sink. Results exhibit about 36% to 50% river flow reduction in post-dam condition and consequent flood reduction promoted 36 to 46% shrinkage of wetland and emergence and expansions of land 76 to 89% agriculture land. Agricultural land sequesters the maximum share of total carbon(C) stock (80–90%), whereas wetland and vegetation-driven carbon banks have diminished significantly (46–74%), droppinglong-standing carbon stability. Although growth of carbon sequestration is marginal (about 15%) due to agricultural expansion, but loss of natural capitals like wetland vegetation have diminished 46–74% carbon contribution reflecting a shift from stable to transient carbon sinks. This underscores the ecological paradox of short-term carbon profits amidst deterioration of natural ecosystem services. Findings highlight the need for transboundary water governance, carbon-smart agricultural practices, and wetland and vegetation restoration for maintaining carbon balance and ecosystem resilience.