Understanding recent dynamics: prosperity and longevity in Ghana

This study provides the first simultaneous estimation of prosperity (per capita income) and longevity (life expectancy) in Ghana using a recursive bivariate Conditional Mixed Process (CMP) model on World Development Indicators (WDI) data (2000–2022). CMP is uniquely suited to address endogeneity and bidirectional causality via cross-equation error correlation, outperforming single-equation approaches in structural systems (Roodman, Am J Clin Nutr 103:495–504, 2011). Results confirm a robust positive prosperity–longevity nexus: a $1,000 rise in per capita income increases life expectancy by 0.091 years (p < 0.001). Prosperity is driven by capital formation (+ $2 per $1 invested), broad money/reserves ratio (+ $75 per 1% rise), and employment (+ $83 per 1 percentage point rise), but dampened by birth rate (–$180 per 1/1,000 rise). Longevity faces counterintuitive pressures: health expenditure (–0.034 years per $1 per capita) and CO₂ emissions (–0.158 years per 1,000 kt) reduce life expectancy, while sanitation access (+ 1.11 years per 1 percentage point) and employment (+ 0.119 years per 1 percentage point) enhance it—reflecting inefficiency (Novignon et al., 2012) and social capital in high-fertility contexts (Agyemang and Gyambiby, AJMRD 7:1–10, 2025). Policy priorities: (1) target capital efficiency via FDI incentives; (2) reallocate health budgets to primary care and rural access; (3) enforce CO₂ caps in industry; (4) scale sanitation to safely managed standards. These Ghana-specific levers offer higher marginal gains in longevity per cedi spent than generic growth strategies.