Land use and land cover change (LULC) driven by agricultural expansion has become a major environmental challenge in tropical regions, particularly in coffee-producing landscapes, where economic growth often conflicts with forest conservation. This study integrates multi-temporal land cover analysis and future scenario modeling to assess LULC dynamics associated with coffee expansion in the district of Ocumal, in the Amazona Peru. Land cover classes were identified using a Random Forest classification approach applied to Landsat imagery from 2000, 2010, and 2020 processed in Google Earth Engine (GEE), while future scenarios for 2030 and 2040 were simulated using the MOLUSCE plugin in QGIS 2.18. Cross-tabulation matrices and annual rates of change were calculated using IDRISI SELVA 17.0. The results show increases of 12.6% and 7.4% in coffee crop area during 2000–2010 and 2010–2020, respectively, alongside a significant reduction in forest and grassland cover (−5.06% and −2.10% during 2010–2020), mainly driven by agricultural expansion facilitated by transportation infrastructure and market accessibility. This study contributes to the international literature by providing empirical evidence from the Peruvian Amazon on the long-term impacts of coffee expansion on land use and land cover, supporting land-use planning and sustainable agriculture in tropical regions.
Cruz et al. (Wed,) studied this question.