Integrated Modelling of EU Transport Policy: Assessing Economic Growth Impacts from Social Marginal Cost Pricing and Infrastructure Investment

This paper combines SCENES, an EU transport model with E3ME, an EU macroeconometric model. Social Marginal Cost Pricing (SMCP) and fuel tax increases were combined with a concentrated TEN-T programme. Large externalities mean an SMCP with very high revenues; if recycled through reductions in other, distortional taxes, GDP significantly increases. France, Italy, and Finland have the largest GDP increases; Denmark, France, and Sweden have the largest employment increases. These results are critically dependent on the revenue recycling, demonstrating the importance of a full macroeconomic analysis, including the fiscal policy implications, combined with a detailed analysis of the transport impacts.