Climate change and herring recruitment in the North Sea: current trends and future risks

• A combination of field observations and physiological modeling was used to investigate feeding conditions of herring larvae in the North Sea in winter and autumn • The community composition and size structure of zooplankton prey were similar between herring spawning areas, but total abundance was much lower in winter than in autumn • Autumn herring larvae were strongly affected by starvation only during the onset of exogenous feeding, while suitable zooplankton prey was sufficient to support the growth of larger larvae. In contrast, winter larvae experienced a prolonged period of food limitation, affecting larval growth and survival • Our physiological model predicts that, in the future, herring larvae will require 28% (autumn) and 35% (winter) more prey biomass to sustain their growth and survival in the rapidly warming North Sea.