Dynamic Responses of Green Securities Market and Traditional Financial Market to Economic Policy Uncertainty in China: A TVP-SVAR-SV Approach

The research employs principal component analysis to construct composite indices for China’s economic policy uncertainty (EPU), the green stock market, and the traditional stock market. Using nonlinear Granger causality tests and a Time-Varying Parameter Structural Vector Autoregression with Stochastic Volatility (TVP-SVAR-SV) model, it systematically examines the dynamic time-varying impact mechanism of China’s EPU on price volatility in the green securities and traditional financial markets. This research provides a crucial theoretical foundation and empirical reference, grounded in a nonlinear and time-varying perspective, for coordinating policy interventions to stabilize both traditional and emerging financial markets during the transition towards a green economy. The findings indicate: (1) An asymmetric risk transmission mechanism exists between the traditional financial and green securities markets in China, with the influence from the traditional financial market to the green securities market being stronger. (2) The influence of EPU in China on the green securities market exhibits time-varying characteristics that differ across periods. For instance, the Russia–Ukraine Conflict saw the green stock market’s most notable short-term negative response to EPU shocks. (3) The traditional financial market shows varied responses to China’s EPU shocks. China’s money market demonstrated a highly similar negative response pattern across three distinct periods.