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The aim is to model the morbidity associated with Onchocerca volvulus infections and the effects of ivermectin treatment.

March 3, 2026Communications MedicineOpen Access

Modelling of onchocerciasis-associated skin and ocular disease and the impact of ivermectin treatment

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The aim is to model the morbidity associated with Onchocerca volvulus infections and the effects of ivermectin treatment.
Developed a morbidity sub-model within the EPIONCHO-IBM transmission model.
Integrated reversible and irreversible skin disease manifestations along with ocular diseases.
Analysed pre-intervention data for skin and eye diseases from various African countries.
Simulated the effects of ivermectin mass drug administration on disease prevalence.
Modelled disease prevalence closely aligned with reported estimates but underestimated irreversible skin disease in older age groups.
Under mass drug administration, trends in infection prevalence and severe itch were captured, but reductions in reactive skin disease and blindness were underestimated.

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Modelling predicts the effect of ivermectin treatment on skin and eye diseases in onchocerciasis, suggesting improved disease burden estimates.

Dixon et al. (2026) studied this question.

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Modelling predicts the effect of ivermectin treatment on skin and eye diseases in onchocerciasis, suggesting improved disease burden estimates.