Modeling crop suitability for rewetting landscapes in the Netherlands across present and future climate scenarios

Draining peatlands and other wetlands for agricultural use triggers several environmental problems, including greenhouse gas emissions, land subsidence, and biodiversity loss. Paludiculture, farming on rewetted land, is a strategy that can help restore some of the natural functions of wetlands while maintaining agricultural use. However, little is known about where paludiculture is feasible or with which crops. In this study, we address this knowledge gap by assessing the biophysical suitability of 12 potential paludicultural crops for the Netherlands. Selected crops include both native wetland crops as well as East Asian paddy crops. We first identified areas with potential for paludiculture based on groundwater levels, seepage and available water capacity. Around a quarter of the Netherlands has the hydrological potential for paludiculture. We then successfully expanded the crop suitability model EcoCrop (Hijmans et al., 2001) with a water balance function. Our study shows that current (drained) conditions limit suitability for many paludicultural crops. However, under raised water conditions most investigated crops—including cattail (Typha latifolia and angustifolia), reed (Phragmites australis), reed canary grass (Phalaris arundinacea), barnyard grass (Echinochloa crus-galli), rice (Oryza sativa), water cress (Nasturtium officinale), European blueberry (Vaccinium myrtillus), water spinach (Ipomoea aquatica), and cranberry (Vaccinium macrocarpon)--were predicted to have at least moderate suitability in some parts of the Netherlands. The impact of climate change on the suitability of the selected crops was minimal, with 8 out of 12 crops experiencing no relevant change in mean suitability; however some East Asian crops will benefit from temperature increase. Our findings complement existing field trials with paludicultural crops by providing the first spatial paludicultural suitability analysis on a national scale. These results support evidence-based discussions on the potential of paludiculture in temperate lowland areas, not only in the Netherlands but also surrounding regions.