On the difficulty of making decisions within the eu-25

Key Points

This analysis reveals the probability of a proposal being rejected is affected by the voting rule and quota settings.
Evaluating specific vote configurations shows that proposals have a null probability if supported by a minority of member states.
Probabilistic modeling of decision-making within the EU-25 highlights a departure from classical assumptions of equiprobable configurations.
These findings suggest potential challenges in future governance structure with further member enlargement and quota adjustments.

Abstract

In this paper we measure the effect of the quota on the difficulty of making decisions in the EU-25 Council after the next enlargement. We compute the probability of a proposal being rejected in the Council. This probability depends on the voting rule (and therefore on the quota) and on the probabilities of the different vote configurations. Here we do not consider that all vote configurations are equiprobable, the classical implicit or explicit assumption. We assume that vote configurations with a minority of members states in favour of the proposal have a null probability, with other vote configurations being equiprobable.

On the difficulty of making decisions within the eu-25

Key Points

Abstract

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