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March 3, 2026The Scientific Issues of Ternopil Volodymyr Hnatiuk National Pedagogical University Series pedagogy0 citationsOpen Access

Аналіз актуарних ризиків за допомогою узагальнених лінійних моделей

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РПРоман ПанібратовПБПетро Іванович Бідюк

Key Points

  • Generalized linear models effectively evaluate actuarial risks, with a strong focus on premium charges for clients.
  • The Monte-Carlo method for Markov chains was employed to generate datasets from normal, gamma, and Pareto distributions.
  • Simulation included random assignment of insurance indicators due to public data access limitations, adding complexity to the analysis.
  • Results suggest tailored models based on quality metrics from actual actuarial data may improve risk assessment accuracy.

Abstract

The problem of applying generalized linear models to the analysis of actuarial risks in the context of premium charges to clients was considered. The Monte-Carlo method for Markov chains was applied. Two situations were considered for the computational experiment. For the first one, insurance indicators and the target variable were randomly assigned due to the problem of public data access. To create three datasets, charges were generated from normal, gamma, and Pareto distributions with dynamic variance, and noise was added to stimulate a non-stationary process. In the second situation, actual actuarial data from the Singa-pore Actuarial Society was used. Generalized Linear Models with normal dis-tribution and logarithmic link function, an exponential distribution and loga-rithmic link function, and Laplace distribution with identity link function were constructed. Based on the model-fitting quality metrics, conclusions were drawn about their structure.

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Cite This Study

Панібратов et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69a766c7badf0bb9e87de633https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/351421
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