Automated Machine Learning for High-Resolution Daily and Hourly Methane Emission Mapping for Rice Paddies over South Korea: Integrating MODIS, ERA5-Land, and Soil Data

Agriculture is a major global source of methane (CH4), and accurate emission estimates are essential for refining national greenhouse gas inventories and supporting climate-resilient policies. This study develops a high-resolution estimation framework for CH4 emissions from Korean rice paddies by integrating multi-source datasets, including Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation indices, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis Version 5 (ERA5)-Land meteorological variables, and Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) soil properties. Using CH4 flux observations from four global rice ecosystems (Italy, Japan, South Korea, and USA), we constructed parallel daily and hourly machine learning models using an automated machine learning (AutoML) framework to compare their performance and process-level interpretability. The daily model demonstrated high predictive accuracy with correlation coefficients (CC) of 0.897 in 5-fold cross-validation and 0.819 in Leave-One-Year-Out (LOYO) cross-validation. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis revealed that while soil temperature is the dominant predictor for daily emissions (explaining ~50% of the variance), variable importance shifts significantly at finer resolutions. The hourly model exhibited a more complex multivariate structure. In this high-resolution context, although Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) remains constant diurnally, its importance strengthens as a critical regulator of emission sensitivity, interacting with hourly meteorological fluctuations to capture short-term dynamics. The resulting 500 m daily gridded maps provide a robust foundation for national inventory refinement and spatially targeted mitigation planning. Our findings suggest that while the daily model offers optimal computational efficiency for long-term monitoring, the hourly model is superior for mechanistic understanding and detecting episodic emission events. This multi-resolution framework establishes an empirical basis for selecting appropriate temporal scales in operational greenhouse gas monitoring systems.