Evolution, Distribution and Prediction of Cervical Cancer Mortality in a Central Mexican State Using a Dynamic Model

This study analyzes the evolution and spatial distribution of cervical cancer mortality. Furthermore, it develops a dynamic simulation model for estimating the evolution of the disease up to 2040. This manuscript details an ecological and retrospective study that analyzed official mortality, morbidity, and population data from the 58 municipalities that constitute the state of San Luis Potosi. We used Moran’s index, linear correlation, structural equation modeling, Excel predictions, and Vensim PLE x64 simulation software to conduct this study. The evolution of deaths from cervical cancer shows a downward trend; mortality follows a clustered distribution pattern, and it is not random. The structural model showed standardized regression coefficients of 0.68 between syphilis cases and cervical cancer cases, with a coefficient of 0.35 for deaths; candidiasis cases with cervical cancer at a coefficient of 0.25 and with deaths from the same disease at a coefficient of 0.46. The coefficients of determination for cervical cancer cases and deaths were 0.74 and 0.91, respectively. This shows that these co-infections—syphilis and candidiasis—are a risk factor for cervical cancer mortality. The estimated mortality rates per 100,000 inhabitants for 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2040 were 5.5, 5.1, 4.8, and 4.4, respectively. The prediction indicates an increase in the number of CC cases and deaths from this cause.