Land cover dynamics in Cyprus: land use transitions between 2000 and 2020 across a coastal buffer zone

Coastal ecosystems hold critical economic value for local communities, national economies, and global markets, as they support livelihoods through tourism, natural resources and essential environmental services (e.g., protection from coastal erosion, climate change mitigation). However, anthropogenic drivers such as industrial expansion, loss of agricultural lands, excessive tourism, alongside natural disasters, place considerable pressure on coastal environments. The value of coastal ecosystems is recognized by a range of policy frameworks, ranging from the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDG-14) to the 2014/89/EU Directive, and in the Mediterranean basin, by the Barcelona Convention. In this paper, we conducted an analysis of land-cover change between 2000–2020, which presents valuable first-time available evidence on the evolution of coastal land dynamics in Cyprus. A 10-kilometer-wide coastal buffer zone was designated around the island to facilitate targeted land-use investigations. Land-cover data was derived from the GlobeLand30 2000 and 2020 datasets (Kappa coefficient: 0.78; accuracy level: 80.63%) and the analysis was conducted using the ArcGIS software employing spatial statistics (mainly focal statistics at a 10x10 pixel neighbourhood) and heatmap visualisations (incl. different bandwidth specifications) The results demonstrate an expansion of urban pressures, especially in the vicinity of the island’s major tourist hotspots, including Larnaca, Paphos, and Limassol, and significant changes related to the rise of croplands. The major land-use transitions identified in this research are associated with the sparse vegetation and the croplands classes that transitioned into the built-up class. Significantly, the overall calculated areas of land conversions to the built-up class neared almost 5 km 2 . By contributing new data on an environmental challenge that has not been previously examined by comparable studies in the context of Cyprus, this study aspires to serve as a future framework for analogous investigations across the Mediterranean basin.