Introduction School attendance and academic achievement are central indicators of student engagement and success, and relations between constructs are typically framed as predictors and outcomes, not as co-developing intertwined trajectories across multiple years of schooling. In Canada, where national attendance data are scarce, little is known about how absences and grades co-evolve through critical educational transitions. We examined heterogeneous joint trajectories of school absences and grade point averages (GPAs) from mid-elementary through secondary school (Grade 5 to Grade 12) and examined the transition to secondary school (Grade 8 to Grade 9) as a developmental turning point. We also assessed correlates of academic functioning classes including demographic factors, elementary school type (K-8 vs. middle school), bullying victimization, and depression and anxiety symptoms. Methods Data were drawn from 701 students (53% girls; M age = 10.9 years) participating in an eight-year longitudinal study spanning Grades 5–12 in southern Ontario, Canada. Official school-record data on annual absences and GPAs were analyzed using parallel-process piecewise latent growth curve modelling and multi-trajectory (latent class) analysis to identify distinct patterns of co-development and discontinuities at the secondary school transition. Results On average, absences increased, and GPAs remained relatively stable across Grade 5 to Grade 12, with a significant increase of 2.76% percent days absent at the secondary school transition. Six joint trajectories were identified: three stable groups showed minimal, developmentally appropriate absences with high, moderate, and mid-range GPA and three risk groups showed increasing or chronic absences paired with declining grades (high increasing absences with moderate declining GPA; low-elementary high-secondary absences with low mid-range declining GPA; chronic absences with mid-range declining GPA). Lower socioeconomic status, male gender, and higher depressive symptoms characterized at-risk trajectories. Discussion Findings indicate that school attendance and achievement are dynamically linked, and for some, change sharply during the secondary school transition. Results underscore the need for early, targeted monitoring of both domains and for additional research to guide intervention and policy in the Canadian education context.
Brittain et al. (Tue,) studied this question.