Potential Occurrence Area Prediction of Pine Wilt Disease in Xinjiang (Northwestern China) by Maximum Entropy Model

(1) Since its introduction to China, pine wilt disease (PWD) has caused severe damage to coniferous forests in affected regions. The disease continues to expand northwestward, posing a significant threat to the ecological security of Xinjiang. (2) This study employed the maximum entropy (MaxEnt, version 3.4.4) model to predict potential areas for PWD transmission and suitable habitats for its vector insect, Monochamus saltuarius (Gebler, 1830). By integrating these results, the potential occurrence areas of PWD in Xinjiang were identified. (3) Human activities were the primary drivers of PWD spread, with factors related to scenic areas and overall human influence playing key roles. Altitude and isothermality were the main limiting factors for the vector insect. Potential PWD occurrence areas were identified, covering approximately 88% of the total coniferous forest area in Xinjiang. (4) High-risk regions include Urumqi City, Ili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture, and Altay Prefecture. This study clarifies potential transmission routes and analyzes high-risk areas, providing a scientific basis for forestry authorities to implement targeted prevention and control measures.