Forecasting Clinical Outcomes in South African District Hospitals Using Time-Series Models: A Methodological Evaluation

Clinical outcomes in South African district hospitals are influenced by a variety of factors including resource availability, staff competence, and patient demographics. A comprehensive review of existing literature was conducted to ensure the selection of appropriate time-series models. Model performance was assessed using cross-validation techniques with a focus on model accuracy and robustness. The analysis revealed a consistent pattern where hospital resource allocation had a significant positive impact on patient recovery rates, particularly in critical care units (CCUs). Time-series models provide a valuable tool for forecasting clinical outcomes in district hospitals but require further validation with real-world data. Further research should be conducted to validate the findings using actual hospital performance data and explore additional factors affecting patient outcomes. Treatment effect was estimated with logit(pᵢ)=β₀+β^ Xᵢ, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.