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March 8, 2026EarthOpen Access

Analyzing the Effect of the 2015/16 Catastrophic El Niño Event on Wildfire Emissions in Southern Africa Using Lagged Correlation and Interrupted Time-Series Causal Impact Technique

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Authors

LSLerato ShikwambanaKMKganyago MahlatseXZXi Zhang

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Overview

Analysis reveals increased fire emissions linked to El Niño, suggesting negative ecosystem effects in Southern Africa.

Key Points

  • To examine the effects of the 2015/16 El Niño phenomenon on vegetation and atmospheric emissions in Southern Africa.
  • Used satellite observations and reanalysis data for analysis.
  • Applied time-lagged cross-correlation to identify interactions among climate variables and air-quality parameters.
  • Employed Bayesian causal impact analysis to evaluate El Niño-induced anomalies.
  • Increased fire-related emissions observed post-2015, especially in dry seasons.
  • Vegetation showed negative anomalies in moisture-related variables, indicating drought stress under higher temperatures.
  • Strong coupling between carbonaceous aerosols and biomass burning was established.

Cite This Study

Shikwambana et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69acc58f32b0ef16a404fdc9https://doi.org/10.3390/earth7020042
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  3. 3Small Fires, Big Impact: Evaluating Fire Emission Estimates in Southern Africa Using New Satellite Imagery of Burned Area and Carbon Monoxide2024 · 9 citations
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  5. 5Radiative forcing due to shifting southern African fire regimes2025