Green Transition Decisions of Manufacturing Enterprises: A Systemic–Synergistic Perspective on Decentralized Governance and Green Credit

Global, industrialization-driven environmental bottlenecks push manufacturing enterprises toward green transitions; yet, the information asymmetry between central and local governments, and between enterprises and banks, hinders this process. Adopting a systemic–synergistic perspective integrating decentralized governance and green credit, in this study, we investigate the green transition decisions of manufacturing enterprises. We construct a quadrilateral evolutionary game model involving the central government, local governments, enterprises, and banks, employing MATLAB R2022b to simulate the effects of the key parameters. Subject to the model’s structural assumptions and parameter boundaries, three core findings emerge: first, we find that punitive environmental policies outperform incentive-based instruments in driving enterprise emission reduction; second, we find that the adaptive adjustments made by decentralized governance can effectively facilitate green practices among enterprises; third, within this framework, we find that green credit exerts a non-monotonic impact on enterprises’ green transition behaviors; meanwhile banks’ assessments of enterprises’ environmental risks can indirectly promote enterprise abatement by motivating local governments through signal transmission. This study underscores the systemic synergy of decentralized governance and green credit, offering insights for multistakeholder coordination and policy optimization to advance organizational sustainability transitions for the green economy.