Phylogeographic and Potential Distribution of Wild Apricot ( Prunus armeniaca ) in Xinjiang: Insights From Chloroplast/Nuclear DNA and Ecological Niche Modeling

As the wild progenitor of cultivated apricot, Xinjiang wild apricot is a key resource for ecosystem stability and germplasm conservation. We analyzed its phylogeography in the Ili wild fruit forests using two chloroplast DNA regions ( rpl32‐trnL , ndhC‐trnV ) and one single‐copy nuclear locus (DXH). Genetic variation was mainly within populations, with weak among‐population differentiation. cpDNA and nuclear data showed discordant spatial patterns, indicating different demographic signals from seed‐mediated versus pollen‐mediated processes. cpDNA neutrality and mismatch analyses did not support recent overall expansion and were more consistent with contraction/bottleneck dynamics, although the dominant cpDNA lineage (h4) retained a post‐LGM expansion signal (~19.6 ka). In contrast, DXH supported recent expansion, strongest in the Yining County population. Isolation‐by‐distance was significant for cpDNA but weak and nonsignificant for DXH, consistent with stronger geographic structuring of maternally inherited variation. MaxEnt models identified precipitation in the wettest season (100–135 mm), precipitation in the warmest season (90–120 mm), and soil sand content (6%–38%) as key predictors of distribution. Suitable habitat is currently concentrated in the Ili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture, with projected expansion under future climate scenarios. These results provide an integrated view of historical demography and contemporary habitat suitability, and offer a basis for conservation planning and sustainable use of Xinjiang wild apricot genetic resources.