What question did this study set out to answer?

The study aims to monitor shrubland health and transitions in the Eastern Mediterranean influenced by climate change.

March 13, 2026The Science of The Total Environment0 citationsOpen Access

Tracking a semi-arid Eastern Mediterranean ecotone through integration of terrestrial and atmospheric earth observation data (2000–2024)

NMN. ManspeizerBen-Gurion University of the Negev AKArnon KarnieliBen-Gurion University of the Negev

Key Points

The study aims to monitor shrubland health and transitions in the Eastern Mediterranean influenced by climate change.
Utilized MODIS Atmospheric Water Vapor Reserve and AgERA5 Vapor Pressure Deficit data.
Employed Landsat 8/9 and Israel Meteorological Service metrics.
Developed a new Normalized Difference Climate-Line Index to assess ecosystem changes.
Analyzed temporal changes in ecotone dynamics from 2000 to 2024.
Atmospheric Water Vapor Reserve increased by 0.43 g/cm2 from 2000 to 2024.
Temperature rose by 0.75 °C, with a notable increase in precipitation and evapotranspiration.
Aridity decreased by 13.3%, indicating improved moisture conditions.
Vapor Pressure Deficit decreased by 0.56 hPa during the study period.

Abstract

Terrestrial-atmospheric contact in the Eastern Mediterranean (Israel) was examined through: (1) MODIS Atmospheric Water Vapor Reserve (AWVR); (2) AgERA5 Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD); (3) Landsat 8/9; and (4) Israel Meteorological Service data. The aim was to develop an Earth observation method to monitor Mediterranean shrublands in relation to climate change and subtropical high (SH) migration. The objectives juxtapose healthy shrublands, a thermodynamically live state (TLS) at disequilibrium, with plagioclimax parcels, and a thermodynamically dead state (TDS) at equilibrium. Monthly/seasonal brightness (BI), greenness (GI), and wetness (WI) indices were derived using Tasseled-Cap Transformation of the Landsat data for TDS and TLS spatial structures. An innovative Normalized Difference Climate-Line Index (NDCLI) was developed to quantify TLS non-stationarity relative to baseline TDS stationarity and monitor ecotone transition. The WI-dominant TLS component drove the NDCLI toward negative (less arid) conditions when vegetation moisture content (VMC) was high during wet periods. Results from the NDCLI were regressed against AWVR data, a proxy for SH migration, revealing an annual transfer of H2O reserves between terrestrial and atmospheric systems, as reflected in their relationship. Within the study area, from 2000 to 2024, AWVR increased (+0.43 g/cm2), including a decade-long intensification event between 2014 and 2024 in which the rate of increase nearly doubled from the previous decade. At the same time, between 2010 and 2024, there were increases in temperature (+0.75 °C), precipitation (+66.5 mm), and evapotranspiration (+33.5 mm/yr-1). Based on an Aridity Index developed from these metrics and the NDCLI, aridity decreased by 13.3%, as also shown in the TCT GI, with increased Spring greening. A decrease in VPD (-0.56 hPa) between 2000 and 2024 warranted the development of a modified Clausius-Clapeyron relation to explain this confounding configuration of global warming metrics and ecotone transition relative to Mediterranean Sea evaporation and the interplay between global/synoptic circulation patterns.

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Cite This Study

Manspeizer et al. (Mon,) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69b3aad702a1e69014ccb833 https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2026.181620

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