Tracing the Catch-up Trajectory of Chinese Science in the Early 21st Century: A Bibliometric Exploration

This study extends Lee Keun’s thesis—originally grounded in the manufacturing sector—on the successful catching-up trajectory of latecomers to scientific domains, more “upstream” in knowledge flows, in 21st-century China. It examines the Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping eras, a period characterised by China’s scientific rise and intensifying geopolitical tensions. Drawing on a bibliometric analysis of data extracted from the Web of Science, the study empirically traces the evolutionary trajectory of Chinese science during this period, as reflected in the dynamics of international and industrial collaboration—the former serving as a key channel for absorbing scientific knowledge from advanced countries and the latter for enhancing its domestic application. The analysis reveals that Chinese science has followed a three-stage, U-shaped trajectory that resembles the pattern proposed by Lee but has not yet completed the “in–out–in again” sequence required for successful catch-up. The findings indicate that, particularly under Xi’s leadership, the Chinese government has increasingly prioritised consolidating the national Triple Helix, often at the expense of international openness. Building on these findings, this study further explores China’s future challenges, strategic options and their broader implications.