Methodological Evaluation and Efficiency Gains in Senegal's Power-Distribution Systems: A Multilevel Regression Analysis (2000–2026)

{ "background": "Power-distribution systems in many developing nations face chronic inefficiencies, leading to substantial technical and commercial losses. In the Senegalese context, ageing infrastructure and rapid demand growth have necessitated a rigorous, data-driven evaluation of equipment performance to inform strategic investment.", "purpose and objectives": "This case study aims to methodologically evaluate the performance of key power-distribution equipment and quantify efficiency gains from recent infrastructure interventions. The primary objective is to establish a robust analytical framework for measuring and predicting system improvements.", "methodology": "A longitudinal multilevel regression analysis was employed, nesting equipment-level observations within regional distribution zones. The core model is specified as Yij = \β0j + \β1X1ij + \εij, with \β0j = \γ00 + \γ01Zj + u0j, where i and j denote equipment and zone, respectively. Analysis used robust standard errors to account for heteroskedasticity.", "findings": "The analysis indicates a statistically significant positive relationship between the deployment of modern amorphous core transformers and reduced technical losses. A one-unit increase in the intervention index was associated with a 7.3% reduction in average losses (95% CI: 5.1% to 9.5%). Regional variability in performance was a major theme, with central zones showing the most pronounced efficiency gains.", "conclusion": "The methodological approach provides a validated framework for assessing distribution system efficiency. The results confirm that targeted equipment upgrades can yield substantial and measurable improvements in technical performance within the studied network.", "recommendations": "Utilities should adopt similar multilevel modelling for prioritising infrastructure renewal. Future investment should focus on high-loss zones and standardise the procurement of high-efficiency transformer technology. Establishing a continuous performance monitoring database is essential.", "key words": "power distribution, efficiency, multilevel regression, technical losses, infrastructure, Senegal