This version (v2) updates the paper with major corrections and improved explanations to be included in "In-Practice" category.No changes to the artifact or experimental results. This system provides, without using story points, using only effort-based (person-days) data: Release forecasts (median, p90, finish date) Sprint metric analysis (throughput, volatility, plannedness, carryover, burnout) Risk indicators and operational health metrics Calendar-aware (weekend, holiday-aware) Monte Carlo simulations Automated visualization (burndown, burnup, throughput trends, burnout) HTML report generation (for Product Owner and team) Goal: Extract all the benefits that Scrum provides with story points (uncertainty, risk, predictability) in an effort-based manner.
Berk Kibarer (Thu,) studied this question.